Safe-haven yen rises, Aussie wobbles as nervous markets face US jobs test

TOKYO :The safe-haven Japanese yen rallied on Wednesday while riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and sterling languished as traders ducked for cover following the worst sell-off in almost a month on Wall Street and big losses for Asian stocks.
The catalyst was ostensibly some soft U.S. manufacturing data, which fanned worries about a hard landing for the world’s biggest economy, with traders already nervous ahead of crucial monthly payrolls data on Friday.
“Price action across global markets (is) exhibiting the hallmarks of an unfolding growth scare,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
“The most damning price signals were in FX and commodity markets,” Rodda added, singling out the yen and Aussie, and highlighting a nearly 5 per cent overnight slump for crude oil.
The yen strengthened as much as 0.4 per cent to 144.89 per dollar before last trading up about 0.1 per cent at 145.37 as of 0320 GMT, following a 1 per cent rally overnight against a broadly stronger dollar.
The dollar-yen pair tends to track long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped nearly 7 basis points (bps) overnight and continued to decline in Asian hours to stand at 3.8329 per cent as investors flocked to the safety of bonds.
The dollar, though, was firm against most other major peers, as it tends to draw safety bids even when the U.S. economy is the locus of concern.
Sterling edged down to $1.3111, after weakening 0.23 per cent overnight. The euro rose 0.1 per cent to $1.1054, following a 0.26 per cent decline in the previous session.
The Swiss franc, another safe haven, strengthened about 0.2 per cent to 0.84865 per dollar.
The Aussie slipped a further 0.14 per cent to $0.6702, extending Tuesday’s 1.2 per cent tumble. It had earlier dropped as much as 0.4 per cent.
Cryptocurrencies also faltered, with bitcoin and ether slipping about 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.
Risks to the U.S. soft-landing scenario – which had been gaining traction recently in markets – saw traders raise odds of a 50 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Sept. 18 to 38 per cent from 30 per cent a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“Markets are nervous ahead of Friday’s very important non-farm payroll report, … which most market participants acknowledge will be a significant factor at the very least in whether the Fed cuts by 25 or 50,” said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank.
“All those asset moves point to a risk-off view and a bias for safe havens, (with investors) stepping back a bit.”
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Friday’s report to show an increase of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in July.
Ahead of that, investors will keep a close eye on job openings data on Wednesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday.
U.S. markets had been closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday and came back Tuesday to a weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey that suggested factory activity in the country would remain subdued for a while.
“That was supposed to show a gain, but actually showed a decline, and has made people wonder once more about the Fed possibly being too late to act,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
“This may be a short week but it will be an important and crucial one for investor confidence,” he added. “People are going to remain on edge.”